In lieu of the goaltending situation for the Edmonton Oilers, I have decided to restart my blog. It takes inspiration to want to share your opinion for all on the interwebz and the question of who should be the Oilers back-up for the up-coming season has served as ample reason. For some fans, certainly some that I have encountered in the realm of Facebook, there is some level of disagreement on this issue. For me, the answer is simple (Devan Dubnyk) but for the sake of argument I might as well explain why:
Jeff Deslauries is a bit of an enigma for me. Obviously he's an exceptional athlete, his raw ability is undeniable. The kid has some amazing reflexes. But for me, that's about where it ends for JDD. Perhaps the most frustrating thing about him is his lack of ability to learn positioning. I played a lot of goal when I was a kid growing up, and I can understand some growing pains, but it perplexes me how a guy in his 6th pro season (and 8th season after his draft) could still get lost in his crease. Especially when the solution could be as simple as tapping the posts every time you come out to challenge.
Devan Dubnyk is a different story. When compared to JDD, Devan is certainly lacking in physical ability, however, he is able to more than compensate with solid technical goaltending. He also tends to be less flashy, and more consistent, and I would much rather have a goalie who is consistent than one that is flashy. Another check in Dubnyk's column comes from his play during his call-up. While he started the season on the wrong foot, during his last 10 games, Dubnyk played at a .912 clip, which ,while being a relatively small sample size is still an arrow pointing in the right direction for the kid.
Looking at the stats for each goaltender during their 22, 23, and 24 year old seasons we can see a statistical difference arise between the two.
JDD: GP GAA SV%
| 2005-06 |
|
|
| 13 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 3.15 |
|
|
|
| 0.897 |
|
|
|
| 2005-06 |
|
|
| 6 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 3.05 |
|
|
|
| 0.899 |
|
|
|
| 2006-07 |
|
|
| 40 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.47 |
|
|
|
| 0.908 |
|
|
|
| 2007-08 |
|
|
| 57 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.90 |
|
|
|
| 0.912 |
|
|
|
DD: GP GAA SV%
| 2007-08 |
|
| 33 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 3.12 |
|
|
|
| 0.904 |
|
|
|
| 2008-09 |
|
| 62 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.97 |
|
|
|
| 0.906 |
|
|
|
| 2009-10 |
|
| 33 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 3.02 |
|
|
|
| 0.915 |
|
|
|
| 2009-10 |
|
| 19 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 3.57 |
|
|
|
| 0.889 |
|
|
|
For the 22 and 23 year old seasons bother DD and JDD spent their time on some pretty bad AHL teams (and for JDD 6 games in the ECHL), and while the difference isn't massive, it is still significant. It helps to reinforce the existence of a higher ceiling for DD. However, I find the 24 year old season the most interesting in terms of differentiating between these two. On the surface the boxcars don't indicate that much of a difference. But it is important to take into the context. JDD's 24 year old season, while good, was spent on a middling Springfield team, that also featured decent season from DD the back up (the difference was only .008). For DD's 24 year old season he played for the worst team in the AHL and had his season broken up by NHL "call-ups". As well DD's back-ups were miserable playing behind the same team, which helps illustrate how good DD really was in Springfield. As well, for about 24 games his sv% hovered around the 0.924-0.920 mark, which is around the range for eventual starters. These statistics definitely add to DD's column. Perhaps the final nail in the coffin for the debate, however, was DD's invite to Team Canada at the Words.
However, in the end there's only one opinion that really matters, and that's Steve Tambellini's, and I am prepared to wait patiently for his decision.
When you stop and think about it, trying to write a blog for the oilogosphere is an extraordinary challenge. I would be naive to assume I could write a statistical analysis the way Willis, Zona or McCurdy can. I would be stupid to assume I can make the same type of analogies Lowetide can. Being an interesting and engaging writer is about finding your niche, and providing content in a way no one else out there can.
Hockey works in much the same manner. Players who struggle to find a niche, or a role on a team, often find their way out of town sooner or later. A good example of a player in this mold, specifically one that all Oiler fans will recognize, Marc Antoine Pouliot. Finding his role was the bane of MAP's Oiler existence. MacT wanted to groom him to be the next coming of Guy Carbonneau, and MAP still had dreams of goalies, nets and red lights dancing in his head.
Struggling to find an identity for yourself is not only a challenge for a player but also for a team as well. The post-SCF Oilers are a prime example of what happens to a team that can't find an identity. Those teams were a mix of everything: size, grit, talent. They were a whole bunch of everything but not overly good at any one aspect of it. Perhaps this is what is most encouraging about the upcoming edition of the Edmonton Oilers. It's pretty clear what we the team will be next year - Big and tough, with a little dose of high flying offense from the kids.
It's tough not be excited.
In lieu of the goaltending situation for the Edmonton Oilers, I have decided to restart my blog. It takes inspiration to want to share your opinion for all on the interwebz and the question of who should be the Oilers back-up for the up-coming season has served as ample reason. For some fans, certainly some that I have encountered in the realm of Facebook, there is some level of disagreement on this issue. For me, the answer is simple (Devan Dubnyk) but for the sake of argument I might as well explain why:
Jeff Deslauries is a bit of an enigma for me. Obviously he's an exceptional athlete, his raw ability is undeniable. The kid has some amazing reflexes. But for me, that's about where it ends for JDD. Perhaps the most frustrating thing about him is his lack of ability to learn positioning. I played a lot of goal when I was a kid growing up, and I can understand some growing pains, but it perplexes me how a guy in his 6th pro season (and 8th season after his draft) could still get lost in his crease. Especially when the solution could be as simple as tapping the posts every time you come out to challenge.
Devan Dubnyk is a different story. When compared to JDD, Devan is certainly lacking in physical ability, however, he is able to more than compensate with solid technical goaltending. He also tends to be less flashy, and more consistent, and I would much rather have a goalie who is consistent than one that is flashy. Another check in Dubnyk's column comes from his play during his call-up. While he started the season on the wrong foot, during his last 10 games, Dubnyk played at a .912 clip, which ,while being a relatively small sample size is still an arrow pointing in the right direction for the kid.
Looking at the stats for each goaltender during their 22, 23, and 24 year old seasons we can see a statistical difference arise between the two.
JDD: GP GAA SV%