Lesnar, Lashley, and Why Lashley isn't in the UFC.

Well, here we go again with another UFC entry. I write about the UFC partially because I am a big fanboy and partially because there is very little Oiler analysis that I can be bothered to write about this time. So sorry to my fellow Oiler fans!

Now on to the UFC:

For the last month, one of the of the biggest topics my friends and I have been discussing why Bobby Lashley (pictured on the left with Bob Sapp) is not a member of the UFC... yet.

Now, I don't have any inside information, so I don't really know why Lashley isn't part of the UFC, but I believe I have a very good educated guess.

First of all we have to look at the different circumstances that surrounded each fighter when they tried to make their way onto the UFC Heavyweight roster.

Brock Lesnar:

While Brock only joined MMA about a year and a half ago, the UFC HW division was in a bad way. At this time you had Randy Couture in a contract dispute with the UFC, a serious lack of up and coming HW "prospects". You had a top contender in Tim Sylvia about to leave the promotion (his last UFC fight was the same night Lesnar debuted), there was also the question mark in Frank Mir and whether or not he would be able to regain form, and the UFC untested Minotauro Nog. I guess you could say in short that the HW division was incredibly unstable, which facilitated Lesnar's move to the UFC, after only one win against a no name from a lesser promotion.

I think there is also a substantive argument that can be made saying Brock got signed to the UFC because he is a massive PPV draw. He would make a tonne of money for the UFC in a time where the UFC had a lot of competition from other promotions (Strikeforce, Elite XC, Affliction, M-1 Global...).

As for Bobby Lashley you have the complete opposite. The UFC now has a stable champ, up-and-comers in Shane Carwin and Cain Velasquez, what looks to be an able Frank Mir, and guys like Cro-Cop, Couture, Kongo, Hardonk and Nog to keep the division full of talent. You also have The Ultimate Fighter: Heavyweights filming, and that only means there will be one or two more guys that will help stock the HW Division. The UFC also has less competition from other promotions, big draws in Forrest Griffin and Brock Lesnar. It is pretty evident that everything is working against Lashley's bid to get in.

Now lets not make a mistake here and say Lashley wont make the UFC, I think it's only a matter of time before he does (like one more convincing win against a tough opponent). That being said, I would be willing to bet that all these factors are conspiring to keep Lashley out of the UFC, for the moment.

GSP, The Oilers, and UFC 100: Disapointment

This is Georges St-Pierre or GSP, and he is the UFC Welterweight Champion of the World. He is also quite possibly the best fighter currently in the UFC, he also happens to be an Oiler fan.

Well, that's where I am going to leave both GSP (for the moment) and the Oilers. I just want to talk about what I have (affectionately) called UFC 100: Disappointment.

To be honest and fair, I haven't watched the undercard bouts, and I liked 3/4 of the maincard fights, but the "Main" Event Lesnar v. Mir 2 was a MASSIVE let-down.

I want to talk about the first 3 fights on the card first:

Yoshihiro Akiyama v. Alan Belcher

I don't really have much to say about this fight. Belcher caught Akiyama with a really brutal groin kick, so kudos to Akiyama for still dominating the fight. I also don't understand how this was a split decision and not unanimous in favour of Akiyama, I felt he really dominated the fight.

Michael Bisping v. Dan Henderson

There was a lot of bad blood going into this fight for Dan Henderson. Bisping had been doing a good job of bad mouthing and getting press for the match, at the expense of Henderson and the Americans (who lost TUF 9). I have to admit to being a Bisping fan, and I actually was liking the way the fight was going for him. With the exception of a poor start (and a VERY good one for Henderson) I felt Bisping did a good job of controlling the fight. However, Bisping made one small mistake andwalked right into Henderson's wheel house, and took a right hook to the side of the head so hard he was out before he hit the mat. The only thing I have that's bad to say about this fight is the TOTALLY unnecessary "Falcon Punch" Henderson delivered to Bisping after he had obviously KO'd him. Now in the heat of the fight, I can understand following a guy to the ground, but that was overkill, and it isn't good for the UFC's image. I wasn't a fan of the UFC for a long time, mostly because I thought it was too brutal, but after watching a lot of MMA (and becoming obsessed with it) I can understand following a fighter to the ground, I mean you have to make sure you finish the fight, right? But for the (new) fans watching the UFC for the first time, that punch only served to validate the "Human Cock-Fighting" argument. I definitely place some blame on the Ref for not stopping Henderson from delivering his flying elbow.

Georges St-Pierre (GSP) v. Thiago Alves

To me, maybe because I am such a huge GSP fan, any fight with GSP in it always has the making of a great fight, and this one didn't let me down. GSP totally dominated Alves (who never had a chance anyways) and won it by decision. The fact that GSP pulled his groin in the third round and still beat the hell out of Alves only puts the exclamation mark on the match. However, probably most importantly GSP acted like the fighter the UFC needs more of, humble, appreciative, and gentle. While this kind of fighter will not bring in the money, like say a guy such as Brock Lesnar, GSP is the image the UFC wants and needs.

Frank Mir v. Brock Lesnar 2

This was the one fight that I didn't like, and it was truly god awful. If there is any fighter I like more than GSP it's Frank Mir, however, while I was upset that Mir didn't win, it didn't factor that much in this decision. This was the most hyped fight I have ever seen, Mir v. Lesnar 2 posters were every where. You couldn't watch/listen/read an article on MMA that didn't mention it. The fight started off ok, there was a little awkward stand up, and it seemed to confuse Mir, then most of the rest of the fight was spent with Lesnar laying on Mir punching him in the face. To Mir's credit he almost dropped Lesnar with a vicious knee in the second round but to no avail, the first round repeated itself. Now this was a disappointing fight for a hardcore fan, I can only imagine how disappointed first time viewers might have been. Mir v. Lesnar was supposed to carry the UFC into the future with a new wave of fandom, and I doubt that's what will happen now. On top of the boring/brutal fight, all the crap Lesnar said at the end of the fight like "who knows, maybe I'll get on top of the wife too" and insulting the sponsors. This fight was just plain horrible for the UFC. Instead maybe the UFC should focus on the sportsmanship displayed by Mir throughout this whole thing. He promoted the fight without being arrogant or abrasive, he offered to touch gloves before the fight, he was gracious in defeat, and stood there while Lesnar put on his show. Last night Mir and GSP were the ultimate display of what a UFC fighter should be.

I guess all I can say in conclusion is I can't wait for Mir v. Lesnar 3 (which is probably inevitable) and hope Mir (or anyone else, but mostly I hope Mir) can give Lesnar a good ole piece of Humble Pie.

Magnum PS

This is Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson, here-by known as MPS or Magnum PS, was the 10th overall choice in the 2009 entry draft. I wanted to learn more about him, and I figured you guys might want to as well. According to his Wiki page MPS made his Elitserien debut on September 24 at age sixteen, five months, and twelve days, becoming the fourth youngest player in Elitserien's history. Which if you ask me is impressive, and puts him among some elite company.

While MPS' totals in the SEL have not been the most impressive (nor are his Desjardins conversions) but looking at his numbers in international tournaments, and playing against kids his own age MPS looks incredible, scoring at around a PPG pace.

I like MPS' flash and size, but for me the jury is still out on whether or not he will be a great player. I would like to see MPS play one season in the SEL, so we can gauge his performance against men, then play in the CHL for a year. That seems like a better option then 2 years in the CHL and one in the AHL if you ask me....

The Heatley Saga

A long time ago, in a land far, far away.... Enough of the Star Wars references I want to give my take on the Dany Heatley crisis. My take is pretty simple: I want Dany Heatley. I like Cogliano, Smid, and sometimes it seems like I am the only Penner fan out there (then I go read Willis) but these guys can't bring to the table what a player the calibre of Heatley can. It basically works that the Triple H line will go out, maybe player checkers, maybe gets the PvP assignment, and Heatley works his magic, which is basically outscoring any level of toughs he's put out on the ice against. Cogs, Smid can't/don't outscore opponents, and while Penner has shown some ability to be able to out produce opposition at 5v5 in a PvP role he'll never do it at a Heatley rate. That being said, I would not exactly be upset if the deal doesn't go down. Keeping the guys involved in the trade means the Oilers keep some depth. As an added bonus for me, I feel that there is a lot of untapped potential in a guy like Penner that we didn't seen under MacT. Now I don't have insiders and all my information is 3rd hand, so I don't want to comment on any of the more shady sides of Dany's character. It's pretty simple for me: we need a guy that can pot goals, and wont waste Hemmer's contract.

Horcoff and his Contract

Ah, here we go again, it is about time someone do a full breakdown of Shawn Horcoff and his new contract, and I shall try my best.

Now, I am not as good at operating stats as Jonathon Willis over at Oilersnation and Coppernblue, but I can still make a convincing argument. But let's digress and get into a little bit of back story. In the summer of 08 Shawn Horcoff signed a 5.5 mil, front loaded, 6 year contract extension due to pay him 7 mil in the upcoming season. Before given the extension Horcoff was on pace for a near PPG season.

Fast forward one year, and Horcoff stunk up the ice worse than a skunk. So the debate becomes, can Horcoff live up to his contract? While, if you look at last year, the answer has to be no, however, Horcoff has a history of bouncing back after bad seasons (at least post-lockout). So now the argument becomes a lot more intriguing.

Now prior to the lockout Horc was an established 40-50 2nd line guy, and he was consistent in that role, so it would seem that this is the position he is suited for (especially if Horcoff's up and down nature is any indicator of the future). However, I don't have any solid numbers to back up any of my assumptions (more on this later). It is reasonable to assume that Horcoff may have had bad Qualteam, with good Qualcomp, and that could help explain his point totals.

But, let's focus on the last 3 seasons, here are Horcoff's raw totals:

GP G A P

2006-07 Edmonton Oilers NHL 80 16 35 51

2007-08 Edmonton Oilers NHL 53 21 29 50

2008-09 Edmonton Oilers NHL 80 17 36 53

Let's also take a look at the Qualcomp, QualTeam, and TOI numbers:

QualComp QualTeam TOI SH TOI PP TOI/G +/-per 60

06-07 - 0.057(10) 0.24(2) 3:25(2) 3:32(4) 20:49 (1) -1.26(6 worst)

07-08 - 0.02(4) 0.05(4) 2:47(4) 4:10(1) 22:13(1) 0.26

08-09 - 0.04 (1) 0.18(2) 3:17(1) 3:44(2) 21:21(1) 0.5

So here are my observations:

-In 06 Horcoff played weak opposition with strong teammates and was outscored massively. To me this would seem like Horcoff isn't quite the defensive specialist we all thought he was (which was something I suspected). However in 08 an 09 Horcoff improved his defense and was slightly positive in both cases with equal opposition and teammates. However, I wonder if this is because of Dustin Penner (because Penner has great numbers in all these areas, in similar situtations as well).

-I think the "Horcoff needs less icetime, specifically on the pk, to be able to score points so he can live up to his contract" argument is bogus. Why? Because only played 8 seconds less per game this year than his ppg season the year prior, and that's only about 10:30 seconds more per game, so his minutes remain virtually constant. A possible reason is for his drop in point production is he flux in PP time (+50 seconds and -40 seconds respectively, and in 07 08 he logged 20 seconds more than Hemmer on average), and that's about a whole games difference. Take into account Horcoff's PGFON/60 mins and he would have only 5 extra points.

In conclusion there is no ascertainable reason as to why Horcoff doesn't score, except the fact that he's inconsistent on the offensive side of things, and that is why there is no reasonable way to assume that Horcoff can live up to his contract.

Drafting @ #10

This is Ryan Ellis. Ryan opened the eyes of many fans, and scouts, at the 2008-2009 World Junior Hockey Championships with a spectacular all around performance. Ellis was originally brought on to the team as the 7th defenseman, there only to play a powerplay specific role. However, much to every ones surprise he flourished in a defensive role as well.

Well I count myself among Ryan Ellis' biggest fans, it is important to realize that to expect Ellis to step into the roster this very year and be able to contribute is very unrealistic.

I am also a big believer in drafting the best player available at your selection, and not drafting for need (that's what UFAs and trades are for) and for me, if MPS or Schenn or someone of their calibre doesn't drop to the 10th position, then Ryan Ellis is the best available player in the draft.

Now whether or not Edmonton chooses to keep Ellis (who is much better than Chorney or Petry) or use him as trade bait latter on is up to them but this kid has the chance to be a top defenseman in the NHL (think Brian Rafalski).

Here's a link to Ellis' numbers for the last 2 seasons in the OHL

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2009/NHL-Draft-Profiles/Ryan-Ellis

his +/- numbers also experienced a major improvement this year going from 30 in 08 to 52 in 09. While some of those totals may be due to the fact that Ellis increased his point totals, I think it definitely shows that Ellis' biggest weakness, his defensive game, is showing improvement. It is important to remember that he was facing higher competition, most likely with better linemates as well, this year.

Now, I am no statistical expert, and I couldn't find a way to calculate this (so this is done as my best estimate of what I read at behindthenet), but if Ellis were to play into the NHL his Desjardin's numbers would be somewhere around 30-40 points in around 70-75 games, with close to an even +/-. Not bad for a smallish 19 year old defenseman.

The Leadership Question

It seems to me that this is one question that was raised throughout the season by many of the fans, that I think is the biggest issue facing the Oilers that can't be resolved with a simple trade, or player signing. The problems with the current leadership group need to be evaluated before the Oilers can make any decisions about what to do with their current core. Players such as Ethan Moreau, Steve Staios, and Shawn Horcoff have carved themselves out a niche as the leaders amoung men in the Oilers locker room. Perhaps unfortunately for the team (or maybe just for me) I have serious doubts as to if Moreau and Co have the ability to be the best possible leaders for the Oilers. Now to be perfectly fair, I don't know the players, I don't talk to them, and I don't spend time in the dressing room, and to make it even harder for me to prove a point, there are no stats that can quantify leadership, so everything I have to say is pure speculation. As I spent the long, cold winter nights on my basement futon watching various Oiler games it just seemed to me that in the later parts of games, and in the crunch at the end of the season Moreau and Co weren't up to the task. To start with Captain Oiler himself Moreau spent much of the most important moments in each game busy fiddling his thumbs in the penalty box. While these penalties were annoying (and the argument could be made that they cost us games) the penalties become more understandable (note not bearable) if you consider what Moreau can bring to the on-ice leadership department, which is... well not a lot. Moreau lacks a lot of things that bring offense to a team, so in these situations he brings what he is good at: grinding. Grinding which inevitably leads to penalties. I wouldn't necessarily remove Moreau from the leadership group, but he isn't C material. As for Staios, well he struggled all year long, his blocked shots were down (by around .4/game), his hits were down (-14), and really other than these things what does Steve Staios bring you on the ice? Shawn Horcoff is a little bit more of a mystery. I think he can bring the scoring touch on the ice, to a certain degree, so I am more inclined to attribute this to an off year. Horc is someone I wouldn't take off the leadership group but I would be giving him a short leash. So what do you do about the leadership group? I would suggest giving the C to a guy like Souray, and perhaps give Staios' A (partially because he shouldn't have it, and partially because I don't think he's here at the start of the season) to a kid. What are your thoughts?