Horcoff and his Contract

Ah, here we go again, it is about time someone do a full breakdown of Shawn Horcoff and his new contract, and I shall try my best.

Now, I am not as good at operating stats as Jonathon Willis over at Oilersnation and Coppernblue, but I can still make a convincing argument. But let's digress and get into a little bit of back story. In the summer of 08 Shawn Horcoff signed a 5.5 mil, front loaded, 6 year contract extension due to pay him 7 mil in the upcoming season. Before given the extension Horcoff was on pace for a near PPG season.

Fast forward one year, and Horcoff stunk up the ice worse than a skunk. So the debate becomes, can Horcoff live up to his contract? While, if you look at last year, the answer has to be no, however, Horcoff has a history of bouncing back after bad seasons (at least post-lockout). So now the argument becomes a lot more intriguing.

Now prior to the lockout Horc was an established 40-50 2nd line guy, and he was consistent in that role, so it would seem that this is the position he is suited for (especially if Horcoff's up and down nature is any indicator of the future). However, I don't have any solid numbers to back up any of my assumptions (more on this later). It is reasonable to assume that Horcoff may have had bad Qualteam, with good Qualcomp, and that could help explain his point totals.

But, let's focus on the last 3 seasons, here are Horcoff's raw totals:

GP G A P

2006-07 Edmonton Oilers NHL 80 16 35 51

2007-08 Edmonton Oilers NHL 53 21 29 50

2008-09 Edmonton Oilers NHL 80 17 36 53

Let's also take a look at the Qualcomp, QualTeam, and TOI numbers:

QualComp QualTeam TOI SH TOI PP TOI/G +/-per 60

06-07 - 0.057(10) 0.24(2) 3:25(2) 3:32(4) 20:49 (1) -1.26(6 worst)

07-08 - 0.02(4) 0.05(4) 2:47(4) 4:10(1) 22:13(1) 0.26

08-09 - 0.04 (1) 0.18(2) 3:17(1) 3:44(2) 21:21(1) 0.5

So here are my observations:

-In 06 Horcoff played weak opposition with strong teammates and was outscored massively. To me this would seem like Horcoff isn't quite the defensive specialist we all thought he was (which was something I suspected). However in 08 an 09 Horcoff improved his defense and was slightly positive in both cases with equal opposition and teammates. However, I wonder if this is because of Dustin Penner (because Penner has great numbers in all these areas, in similar situtations as well).

-I think the "Horcoff needs less icetime, specifically on the pk, to be able to score points so he can live up to his contract" argument is bogus. Why? Because only played 8 seconds less per game this year than his ppg season the year prior, and that's only about 10:30 seconds more per game, so his minutes remain virtually constant. A possible reason is for his drop in point production is he flux in PP time (+50 seconds and -40 seconds respectively, and in 07 08 he logged 20 seconds more than Hemmer on average), and that's about a whole games difference. Take into account Horcoff's PGFON/60 mins and he would have only 5 extra points.

In conclusion there is no ascertainable reason as to why Horcoff doesn't score, except the fact that he's inconsistent on the offensive side of things, and that is why there is no reasonable way to assume that Horcoff can live up to his contract.

Drafting @ #10

This is Ryan Ellis. Ryan opened the eyes of many fans, and scouts, at the 2008-2009 World Junior Hockey Championships with a spectacular all around performance. Ellis was originally brought on to the team as the 7th defenseman, there only to play a powerplay specific role. However, much to every ones surprise he flourished in a defensive role as well.

Well I count myself among Ryan Ellis' biggest fans, it is important to realize that to expect Ellis to step into the roster this very year and be able to contribute is very unrealistic.

I am also a big believer in drafting the best player available at your selection, and not drafting for need (that's what UFAs and trades are for) and for me, if MPS or Schenn or someone of their calibre doesn't drop to the 10th position, then Ryan Ellis is the best available player in the draft.

Now whether or not Edmonton chooses to keep Ellis (who is much better than Chorney or Petry) or use him as trade bait latter on is up to them but this kid has the chance to be a top defenseman in the NHL (think Brian Rafalski).

Here's a link to Ellis' numbers for the last 2 seasons in the OHL

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2009/NHL-Draft-Profiles/Ryan-Ellis

his +/- numbers also experienced a major improvement this year going from 30 in 08 to 52 in 09. While some of those totals may be due to the fact that Ellis increased his point totals, I think it definitely shows that Ellis' biggest weakness, his defensive game, is showing improvement. It is important to remember that he was facing higher competition, most likely with better linemates as well, this year.

Now, I am no statistical expert, and I couldn't find a way to calculate this (so this is done as my best estimate of what I read at behindthenet), but if Ellis were to play into the NHL his Desjardin's numbers would be somewhere around 30-40 points in around 70-75 games, with close to an even +/-. Not bad for a smallish 19 year old defenseman.

The Leadership Question

It seems to me that this is one question that was raised throughout the season by many of the fans, that I think is the biggest issue facing the Oilers that can't be resolved with a simple trade, or player signing. The problems with the current leadership group need to be evaluated before the Oilers can make any decisions about what to do with their current core. Players such as Ethan Moreau, Steve Staios, and Shawn Horcoff have carved themselves out a niche as the leaders amoung men in the Oilers locker room. Perhaps unfortunately for the team (or maybe just for me) I have serious doubts as to if Moreau and Co have the ability to be the best possible leaders for the Oilers. Now to be perfectly fair, I don't know the players, I don't talk to them, and I don't spend time in the dressing room, and to make it even harder for me to prove a point, there are no stats that can quantify leadership, so everything I have to say is pure speculation. As I spent the long, cold winter nights on my basement futon watching various Oiler games it just seemed to me that in the later parts of games, and in the crunch at the end of the season Moreau and Co weren't up to the task. To start with Captain Oiler himself Moreau spent much of the most important moments in each game busy fiddling his thumbs in the penalty box. While these penalties were annoying (and the argument could be made that they cost us games) the penalties become more understandable (note not bearable) if you consider what Moreau can bring to the on-ice leadership department, which is... well not a lot. Moreau lacks a lot of things that bring offense to a team, so in these situations he brings what he is good at: grinding. Grinding which inevitably leads to penalties. I wouldn't necessarily remove Moreau from the leadership group, but he isn't C material. As for Staios, well he struggled all year long, his blocked shots were down (by around .4/game), his hits were down (-14), and really other than these things what does Steve Staios bring you on the ice? Shawn Horcoff is a little bit more of a mystery. I think he can bring the scoring touch on the ice, to a certain degree, so I am more inclined to attribute this to an off year. Horc is someone I wouldn't take off the leadership group but I would be giving him a short leash. So what do you do about the leadership group? I would suggest giving the C to a guy like Souray, and perhaps give Staios' A (partially because he shouldn't have it, and partially because I don't think he's here at the start of the season) to a kid. What are your thoughts?

Goaltending and the Oilers

After much thought and consideration over what an appropriate title might be for this post segment, like Fantasy GMing, or Armchair GM (unfortunately these have been taken by others such as the immortal Robin Brownlee) I have decided to title this post "Goal tending and the Oilers".

Now that I have explained my lack of creativity, I would like to discuss one of Edmonton's big question marks for the upcoming campaign: Goal tending. I guess an appropriate place to start would be why I don't like the options that seem to be the most easily accessible to the Oilers.

Dwayne Roloson (Or Rolofson if you're Marc Crawford):

Before we go anywhere with this discussion I should reveal a secret: I am not a fan of Roli. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate the stuff he has done here, but we should all be honest with ourselves here, Roli is a rapidly aging, average-at-best goaltender in the NHL. I could go into a statistical breakdown of Roli's career, or I could sum it up in one word: INCONSISTENCY. I am sure all you Oiler fans remember the Roli of 07-08.

Roli does have some upsides though, he's a "battler" and a "warrior", which is the right kind of attitude for a leader to demonstrate to his team (assuming Roli is a leader in the Oilers dressing room). However, there are also reports that while he's playing Roli's a great teammate, but when he's not playing he can be little bit of a distraction. This is a big reason I don't want to see Roli back here, because next season JDD has got to get substantial action in net.

Another big reason I don't want Roli back is because, reportedly, he is looking for a 2 year contract; and for a 40 year old, inconsistent, journeyman goalie, I am very doubtful that there is any way that deal could work out for the Oilers (unless of course, Roli some how maintains this seasons form).

Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers (JDD):

I don't know where to start with JDD. I guess you could say I am also not a fan of JDD's, however, I think he has some potential as a capable NHL goalie. For next year I don't see how you can have JDD as any more than a 15-20 game back-up, he was totally unimpressive this year (minus his game against NJD). JDD also has had lack luster career numbers, here's his best season as a pro (excluding the ECHL):

07-08 Springfield Flacons GP GAA Sv% W L OTL

57 2.90 .912 23 26 5

Now to be perfectly honest, these numbers are a little deflated because the Falcons are a mess. But this was also JDD's 4th year as a pro (JDD's best junior year was by far his 3rd year by the way). Just looking at the available trends in JDD's numbers and you get the vibe that he is a late bloomer, and that's fine, but this team should be in a more "win-now-mode".

So what other options lay out there? Well there is a myriad of choices, it would seem like guys such as J.S. Guigere can be snatched from Anaheim, or Martin Biron via UFA, however, I want to cover only one option in this blog (I might discuss guys like Biron or Giggy at a different time): Josh Harding.

Harding is the RFA backup in Minny, and consensus around the league is that he is ready to be an NHL starter. Harding has lots of things going for him: his numbers are spectacular (he did play in Minny... but WOW), he's young (one year younger than JDD, one older than DD), and he has decent experience at the NHL level.

I see Harding as a risk/MASSIVE REWARD situation. Give him a 1-2 year deal. If it doesn't work out then there's little harm done, if it does Harding will be the first bonafide number 1 the Oilers have had since Tommy Salo.