Challenges

When you stop and think about it, trying to write a blog for the oilogosphere is an extraordinary challenge. I would be naive to assume I could write a statistical analysis the way Willis, Zona or McCurdy can. I would be stupid to assume I can make the same type of analogies Lowetide can. Being an interesting and engaging writer is about finding your niche, and providing content in a way no one else out there can. Hockey works in much the same manner. Players who struggle to find a niche, or a role on a team, often find their way out of town sooner or later. A good example of a player in this mold, specifically one that all Oiler fans will recognize, Marc Antoine Pouliot. Finding his role was the bane of MAP's Oiler existence. MacT wanted to groom him to be the next coming of Guy Carbonneau, and MAP still had dreams of goalies, nets and red lights dancing in his head. Struggling to find an identity for yourself is not only a challenge for a player but also for a team as well. The post-SCF Oilers are a prime example of what happens to a team that can't find an identity. Those teams were a mix of everything: size, grit, talent. They were a whole bunch of everything but not overly good at any one aspect of it. Perhaps this is what is most encouraging about the upcoming edition of the Edmonton Oilers. It's pretty clear what we the team will be next year - Big and tough, with a little dose of high flying offense from the kids. It's tough not be excited.

The Back Up Plan

In lieu of the goaltending situation for the Edmonton Oilers, I have decided to restart my blog. It takes inspiration to want to share your opinion for all on the interwebz and the question of who should be the Oilers back-up for the up-coming season has served as ample reason. For some fans, certainly some that I have encountered in the realm of Facebook, there is some level of disagreement on this issue. For me, the answer is simple (Devan Dubnyk) but for the sake of argument I might as well explain why: Jeff Deslauries is a bit of an enigma for me. Obviously he's an exceptional athlete, his raw ability is undeniable. The kid has some amazing reflexes. But for me, that's about where it ends for JDD. Perhaps the most frustrating thing about him is his lack of ability to learn positioning. I played a lot of goal when I was a kid growing up, and I can understand some growing pains, but it perplexes me how a guy in his 6th pro season (and 8th season after his draft) could still get lost in his crease. Especially when the solution could be as simple as tapping the posts every time you come out to challenge. Devan Dubnyk is a different story. When compared to JDD, Devan is certainly lacking in physical ability, however, he is able to more than compensate with solid technical goaltending. He also tends to be less flashy, and more consistent, and I would much rather have a goalie who is consistent than one that is flashy. Another check in Dubnyk's column comes from his play during his call-up. While he started the season on the wrong foot, during his last 10 games, Dubnyk played at a .912 clip, which ,while being a relatively small sample size is still an arrow pointing in the right direction for the kid. Looking at the stats for each goaltender during their 22, 23, and 24 year old seasons we can see a statistical difference arise between the two. JDD: GP GAA SV%

2005-06				13							3.15					0.897
2005-06				6							3.05					0.899
2006-07				40							2.47					0.908
2007-08				57							2.90					0.912

DD: GP GAA SV%

2007-08			33							3.12					0.904
2008-09			62							2.97					0.906
2009-10			33							3.02					0.915
2009-10			19							3.57					0.889

For the 22 and 23 year old seasons bother DD and JDD spent their time on some pretty bad AHL teams (and for JDD 6 games in the ECHL), and while the difference isn't massive, it is still significant. It helps to reinforce the existence of a higher ceiling for DD. However, I find the 24 year old season the most interesting in terms of differentiating between these two. On the surface the boxcars don't indicate that much of a difference. But it is important to take into the context. JDD's 24 year old season, while good, was spent on a middling Springfield team, that also featured decent season from DD the back up (the difference was only .008). For DD's 24 year old season he played for the worst team in the AHL and had his season broken up by NHL "call-ups". As well DD's back-ups were miserable playing behind the same team, which helps illustrate how good DD really was in Springfield. As well, for about 24 games his sv% hovered around the 0.924-0.920 mark, which is around the range for eventual starters. These statistics definitely add to DD's column. Perhaps the final nail in the coffin for the debate, however, was DD's invite to Team Canada at the Words. However, in the end there's only one opinion that really matters, and that's Steve Tambellini's, and I am prepared to wait patiently for his decision.

Lesnar, Lashley, and Why Lashley isn't in the UFC.

Well, here we go again with another UFC entry. I write about the UFC partially because I am a big fanboy and partially because there is very little Oiler analysis that I can be bothered to write about this time. So sorry to my fellow Oiler fans!

Now on to the UFC:

For the last month, one of the of the biggest topics my friends and I have been discussing why Bobby Lashley (pictured on the left with Bob Sapp) is not a member of the UFC... yet.

Now, I don't have any inside information, so I don't really know why Lashley isn't part of the UFC, but I believe I have a very good educated guess.

First of all we have to look at the different circumstances that surrounded each fighter when they tried to make their way onto the UFC Heavyweight roster.

Brock Lesnar:

While Brock only joined MMA about a year and a half ago, the UFC HW division was in a bad way. At this time you had Randy Couture in a contract dispute with the UFC, a serious lack of up and coming HW "prospects". You had a top contender in Tim Sylvia about to leave the promotion (his last UFC fight was the same night Lesnar debuted), there was also the question mark in Frank Mir and whether or not he would be able to regain form, and the UFC untested Minotauro Nog. I guess you could say in short that the HW division was incredibly unstable, which facilitated Lesnar's move to the UFC, after only one win against a no name from a lesser promotion.

I think there is also a substantive argument that can be made saying Brock got signed to the UFC because he is a massive PPV draw. He would make a tonne of money for the UFC in a time where the UFC had a lot of competition from other promotions (Strikeforce, Elite XC, Affliction, M-1 Global...).

As for Bobby Lashley you have the complete opposite. The UFC now has a stable champ, up-and-comers in Shane Carwin and Cain Velasquez, what looks to be an able Frank Mir, and guys like Cro-Cop, Couture, Kongo, Hardonk and Nog to keep the division full of talent. You also have The Ultimate Fighter: Heavyweights filming, and that only means there will be one or two more guys that will help stock the HW Division. The UFC also has less competition from other promotions, big draws in Forrest Griffin and Brock Lesnar. It is pretty evident that everything is working against Lashley's bid to get in.

Now lets not make a mistake here and say Lashley wont make the UFC, I think it's only a matter of time before he does (like one more convincing win against a tough opponent). That being said, I would be willing to bet that all these factors are conspiring to keep Lashley out of the UFC, for the moment.

GSP, The Oilers, and UFC 100: Disapointment

This is Georges St-Pierre or GSP, and he is the UFC Welterweight Champion of the World. He is also quite possibly the best fighter currently in the UFC, he also happens to be an Oiler fan.

Well, that's where I am going to leave both GSP (for the moment) and the Oilers. I just want to talk about what I have (affectionately) called UFC 100: Disappointment.

To be honest and fair, I haven't watched the undercard bouts, and I liked 3/4 of the maincard fights, but the "Main" Event Lesnar v. Mir 2 was a MASSIVE let-down.

I want to talk about the first 3 fights on the card first:

Yoshihiro Akiyama v. Alan Belcher

I don't really have much to say about this fight. Belcher caught Akiyama with a really brutal groin kick, so kudos to Akiyama for still dominating the fight. I also don't understand how this was a split decision and not unanimous in favour of Akiyama, I felt he really dominated the fight.

Michael Bisping v. Dan Henderson

There was a lot of bad blood going into this fight for Dan Henderson. Bisping had been doing a good job of bad mouthing and getting press for the match, at the expense of Henderson and the Americans (who lost TUF 9). I have to admit to being a Bisping fan, and I actually was liking the way the fight was going for him. With the exception of a poor start (and a VERY good one for Henderson) I felt Bisping did a good job of controlling the fight. However, Bisping made one small mistake andwalked right into Henderson's wheel house, and took a right hook to the side of the head so hard he was out before he hit the mat. The only thing I have that's bad to say about this fight is the TOTALLY unnecessary "Falcon Punch" Henderson delivered to Bisping after he had obviously KO'd him. Now in the heat of the fight, I can understand following a guy to the ground, but that was overkill, and it isn't good for the UFC's image. I wasn't a fan of the UFC for a long time, mostly because I thought it was too brutal, but after watching a lot of MMA (and becoming obsessed with it) I can understand following a fighter to the ground, I mean you have to make sure you finish the fight, right? But for the (new) fans watching the UFC for the first time, that punch only served to validate the "Human Cock-Fighting" argument. I definitely place some blame on the Ref for not stopping Henderson from delivering his flying elbow.

Georges St-Pierre (GSP) v. Thiago Alves

To me, maybe because I am such a huge GSP fan, any fight with GSP in it always has the making of a great fight, and this one didn't let me down. GSP totally dominated Alves (who never had a chance anyways) and won it by decision. The fact that GSP pulled his groin in the third round and still beat the hell out of Alves only puts the exclamation mark on the match. However, probably most importantly GSP acted like the fighter the UFC needs more of, humble, appreciative, and gentle. While this kind of fighter will not bring in the money, like say a guy such as Brock Lesnar, GSP is the image the UFC wants and needs.

Frank Mir v. Brock Lesnar 2

This was the one fight that I didn't like, and it was truly god awful. If there is any fighter I like more than GSP it's Frank Mir, however, while I was upset that Mir didn't win, it didn't factor that much in this decision. This was the most hyped fight I have ever seen, Mir v. Lesnar 2 posters were every where. You couldn't watch/listen/read an article on MMA that didn't mention it. The fight started off ok, there was a little awkward stand up, and it seemed to confuse Mir, then most of the rest of the fight was spent with Lesnar laying on Mir punching him in the face. To Mir's credit he almost dropped Lesnar with a vicious knee in the second round but to no avail, the first round repeated itself. Now this was a disappointing fight for a hardcore fan, I can only imagine how disappointed first time viewers might have been. Mir v. Lesnar was supposed to carry the UFC into the future with a new wave of fandom, and I doubt that's what will happen now. On top of the boring/brutal fight, all the crap Lesnar said at the end of the fight like "who knows, maybe I'll get on top of the wife too" and insulting the sponsors. This fight was just plain horrible for the UFC. Instead maybe the UFC should focus on the sportsmanship displayed by Mir throughout this whole thing. He promoted the fight without being arrogant or abrasive, he offered to touch gloves before the fight, he was gracious in defeat, and stood there while Lesnar put on his show. Last night Mir and GSP were the ultimate display of what a UFC fighter should be.

I guess all I can say in conclusion is I can't wait for Mir v. Lesnar 3 (which is probably inevitable) and hope Mir (or anyone else, but mostly I hope Mir) can give Lesnar a good ole piece of Humble Pie.

Magnum PS

This is Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson, here-by known as MPS or Magnum PS, was the 10th overall choice in the 2009 entry draft. I wanted to learn more about him, and I figured you guys might want to as well. According to his Wiki page MPS made his Elitserien debut on September 24 at age sixteen, five months, and twelve days, becoming the fourth youngest player in Elitserien's history. Which if you ask me is impressive, and puts him among some elite company.

While MPS' totals in the SEL have not been the most impressive (nor are his Desjardins conversions) but looking at his numbers in international tournaments, and playing against kids his own age MPS looks incredible, scoring at around a PPG pace.

I like MPS' flash and size, but for me the jury is still out on whether or not he will be a great player. I would like to see MPS play one season in the SEL, so we can gauge his performance against men, then play in the CHL for a year. That seems like a better option then 2 years in the CHL and one in the AHL if you ask me....

The Heatley Saga

A long time ago, in a land far, far away.... Enough of the Star Wars references I want to give my take on the Dany Heatley crisis. My take is pretty simple: I want Dany Heatley. I like Cogliano, Smid, and sometimes it seems like I am the only Penner fan out there (then I go read Willis) but these guys can't bring to the table what a player the calibre of Heatley can. It basically works that the Triple H line will go out, maybe player checkers, maybe gets the PvP assignment, and Heatley works his magic, which is basically outscoring any level of toughs he's put out on the ice against. Cogs, Smid can't/don't outscore opponents, and while Penner has shown some ability to be able to out produce opposition at 5v5 in a PvP role he'll never do it at a Heatley rate. That being said, I would not exactly be upset if the deal doesn't go down. Keeping the guys involved in the trade means the Oilers keep some depth. As an added bonus for me, I feel that there is a lot of untapped potential in a guy like Penner that we didn't seen under MacT. Now I don't have insiders and all my information is 3rd hand, so I don't want to comment on any of the more shady sides of Dany's character. It's pretty simple for me: we need a guy that can pot goals, and wont waste Hemmer's contract.

Horcoff and his Contract

Ah, here we go again, it is about time someone do a full breakdown of Shawn Horcoff and his new contract, and I shall try my best.

Now, I am not as good at operating stats as Jonathon Willis over at Oilersnation and Coppernblue, but I can still make a convincing argument. But let's digress and get into a little bit of back story. In the summer of 08 Shawn Horcoff signed a 5.5 mil, front loaded, 6 year contract extension due to pay him 7 mil in the upcoming season. Before given the extension Horcoff was on pace for a near PPG season.

Fast forward one year, and Horcoff stunk up the ice worse than a skunk. So the debate becomes, can Horcoff live up to his contract? While, if you look at last year, the answer has to be no, however, Horcoff has a history of bouncing back after bad seasons (at least post-lockout). So now the argument becomes a lot more intriguing.

Now prior to the lockout Horc was an established 40-50 2nd line guy, and he was consistent in that role, so it would seem that this is the position he is suited for (especially if Horcoff's up and down nature is any indicator of the future). However, I don't have any solid numbers to back up any of my assumptions (more on this later). It is reasonable to assume that Horcoff may have had bad Qualteam, with good Qualcomp, and that could help explain his point totals.

But, let's focus on the last 3 seasons, here are Horcoff's raw totals:

GP G A P

2006-07 Edmonton Oilers NHL 80 16 35 51

2007-08 Edmonton Oilers NHL 53 21 29 50

2008-09 Edmonton Oilers NHL 80 17 36 53

Let's also take a look at the Qualcomp, QualTeam, and TOI numbers:

QualComp QualTeam TOI SH TOI PP TOI/G +/-per 60

06-07 - 0.057(10) 0.24(2) 3:25(2) 3:32(4) 20:49 (1) -1.26(6 worst)

07-08 - 0.02(4) 0.05(4) 2:47(4) 4:10(1) 22:13(1) 0.26

08-09 - 0.04 (1) 0.18(2) 3:17(1) 3:44(2) 21:21(1) 0.5

So here are my observations:

-In 06 Horcoff played weak opposition with strong teammates and was outscored massively. To me this would seem like Horcoff isn't quite the defensive specialist we all thought he was (which was something I suspected). However in 08 an 09 Horcoff improved his defense and was slightly positive in both cases with equal opposition and teammates. However, I wonder if this is because of Dustin Penner (because Penner has great numbers in all these areas, in similar situtations as well).

-I think the "Horcoff needs less icetime, specifically on the pk, to be able to score points so he can live up to his contract" argument is bogus. Why? Because only played 8 seconds less per game this year than his ppg season the year prior, and that's only about 10:30 seconds more per game, so his minutes remain virtually constant. A possible reason is for his drop in point production is he flux in PP time (+50 seconds and -40 seconds respectively, and in 07 08 he logged 20 seconds more than Hemmer on average), and that's about a whole games difference. Take into account Horcoff's PGFON/60 mins and he would have only 5 extra points.

In conclusion there is no ascertainable reason as to why Horcoff doesn't score, except the fact that he's inconsistent on the offensive side of things, and that is why there is no reasonable way to assume that Horcoff can live up to his contract.